Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in Meso and Macro Tidal Areas. Application to the Cádiz Bay, Spain

Tsunami hazard can be analyzed from both deterministic and probabilistic points of view. The approach is based on a “credible” worst case tsunami, which often selected historical events in the region study. Within (PTHA, Probabilistic Hazard Analysis), statistical analysis carried out particular regions where records tsunami heights runup are available. In areas these scarce, synthetic series usually generated using Monte Carlo approaches. Commonly, sea level variation currents forced by tidal motion either disregarded or considered treated as aleatory uncertainties numerical models. However, zones with macro meso regime, effect tides probability distribution highly important. this work, we present PTHA methodology generation seismic catalogs incorporation into simulation. We applied to Bay Cádiz area Spain, zone that was greatly damaged 1755 earthquake tsunami. build database simulations for different variables: faults, magnitudes, epicenter locations levels. From generate set scenarios conditions involved variables. These cover entire range possible catalog (earthquakes levels). Each scenario propagated model C3, source target coast (Cádiz Bay). Finally, map maximum values given variables (tsunami intensity measures) producing thematic maps. 1000 time combined tsunamigenic earthquakes levels were synthetically technique. had 10000-year duration. characteristics statistically derive maps return periods 500, 1000, 5000, 10000 years, including wave elevation, current speed, Froude number, total forces.